Stop the Insanity! Fear is the mind killer. Pan-epi-panic-demic
"Fear is the mind killer" -Dune by Frank Herbert.
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" -FDR
Panepipanicdemic *
Stop Feeding the Fear Dragon, DO Feed the Science/Reality Dragon
Please join me in trying to help teach people to stop feeding the Fear Dragon, while also learning and maintaining good hygiene habits.
I have been asking people for decades, especially men, to wash their hands, practice decent hygiene etc, but for the most part (except my kids) it has mostly been ignored.
Now people have swung to a ridiculous extreme the other way.
What you are doing TO SUCH AN EXTREME, socially isolating (to an extreme), is going to (if it hasn't already) kill far more people than the pathogen itself will.
As per the GenConTV discussion Friday, using the example longitudinal studies:
- For every social group a person drops, there is on average a 10%+ decrease in quality of life.
- Seniors with a 2% death rate losing 1 of 2 social groups increase to 5%, and losing both groups for a sustained period of time, when not even in a crisis situation, increases to 12%+, and then goes up exponentially during extended crises.
- (BMJ Open, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2016)
- Social isolation, especially in crisis, can have an exponential effects on health and death rates. For example research shows a 200% increase in the early death rate for "Blacks" (term study used), and 60-80% increase for "whites". (American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 188, No. 1, 2019).
- Social isolation leads to 30% increase in the risk of stroke or the development of coronary heart disease (Heart, Vol. 102, No. 13).
This doesn't mean be stupid about hygiene now that you have gotten a wake up call to the reality that there are innumerable pathogens around that can kill you every day, and especially to be considerate of those of us that are elderly and/or immuno-compromised, but don't live your life so over-reactively just in fear, try to moderate your response in a more balanced way and help turn the fundamentals of what you are learning into healthy habits, while re-establishing life balance..
Tune out the over-hyped misleading media and leaders taking advantage of your fear to seize more power over you.
DO ADAPT TO A MORE HYGIENIC LIFESTYLE, but moderate to reality not panic.
Here are some practical good basic hygiene things you should always have been doing.
- When YOU are sick, stay home, work from home. If you have to go out THEN you wear a mask and such, that is out of consideration of others, it doesn't usually help your selfish fears about your catching from others, but it does help reduce you spreading to others when you know you are sick.
- Maintain "social distance" from the elderly or immunocompromised, BUT DON'T SOCIALLY ISOLATE.
- Call senior adults, people with disabilities, neurodifferences, or health issues regularlly (phone, Internet, whatever), on a regular schedule they can look forward to (and don't flake), this makes a huge difference in THEIR immune system and life quality / lifespan.
- Do wash your hands frequently (especially after using the bathroom men!).
- Do you paper towels to open and close the bathroom door when you are leaving.
- Do get out of the habit of touching your face all the time.
- Do cover your coughs and sneezes with the inside of your elbow or other something better (not your hands and not openly). There is no perfect method, but some are more helpful than others (see this Mythbusters clips).
- Do regularly clean your house doorknobs, light switches, bathrooms, sink handles, car steering wheel & doors, etc.
Tangential but relevant side rant: Meanwhile, realize that you're being suckered into over responding and giving up your freedoms, and once they are gone, rarely do those in power let it go. Look at the USA Patriot Act and wars in over-response to 9/11. The supposed "Sundown clause" that was supposed to make it go away after 5 years, but of course just gets extended and increased instead. The political "leaders" took advantage of your fears and grew their power while curtailing your freedoms. We now have an entire generation that doesn't know how dramatically more free we were before 2002.
If YOU are sick, stay home. If you are not, get back out there (using reasonable safe hygiene practices) and save the economy by supporting the few struggling (especially small) businesses that are staying open (while maintaining good hygiene practices daily).
There have always been, and always will be, so many deadly pathogens out there every day.
Are you going to live the rest of your life as "Bubble Boy"?
Don't go back to your old unsanitary habits, but do moderate and stop feeding the fear dragon and get life rolling again.
Serious Consequences of the Bans:
Surgeries that have been postponed so far include hip and knee replacements, A.C.L. reconstruction and pediatric apnea surgery.
Cancelled cancer surgery & chemo:
- Washington state: https://www.king5.com/article/news/cancer-patients-turned-away-from-surgeries-as-hospitals-prepare-for-the-worst/281-4c1fd12a-a47c-4339-8629-aa7791f76cda
- Seattle: Swedish Medical Center performed about 20 percent as many surgeries as is typical. Kirkland canceled more than 30 procedures planned for Friday alone. https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/15/her-cancer-surgery-was-canceled-at-a-hospital-bracing-for-coronavirus/
Example Annual Death Numbers:
Tuberculosis (TB): US: Worldwide: 58,000,000 infected, 1,500,000 died in 2018. (https://www.who.int/tb/global-report-2019)
Strep Group A (GAS): US: ~1,000 to 1,700 deaths/yr (11.7%-14.8% case-fatality rate) Worldwide: >500,000/yr (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/45/7/863/542453)
Strep Group B: US: Worldwide: causes an estimated 150,000 preventable stillbirths and infant deaths every year (https://www.who.int/immunization/newsroom/press/news_group_b_strep_stillbirths_infant_deaths_2017/en/)
Staphylococcus aureus: US: (500,000 hospitalizations) ~50,000/yr deaths (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4274785/) - ~20,000/yr deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2019/p0305-deadly-staph-infections.html) Worldwide:
Influenza: US: Worldwide: 290,000 - 650,000 flu deaths in 2017 WHO report (https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-12-2017-up-to-650-000-people-die-of-respiratory-diseases-linked-to-seasonal-flu-each-year)
MRSA: US: Worldwide:
Pneumonia: US: Worldwide: 2.56 million people died from pneumonia in 2017 (https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia)
Cancer (I predict it is likely to spike in late 2020 / and throughout 2021 & 2022 due to the bans on exams, diagnostic equipment, surgeries, & chemo, the longer the bans are in place the worse the spike will be, since early intervention is the key to): US: Worldwide:
Cardiovascular disease (#1 killer worldwide): 17.79 million in 2017 (https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#what-do-people-die-from)
Cancers (#2 killer worldwide): 9.56 million
Respiratory diseases: 3.91 million
Other info
https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/world-rankings-total-deaths
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#cause-by-cause
Fact checks
Germany requiring "Immunity Papers": Suggested but not yet policy as of 20200413: https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-grosse-antikoerper-studie-soll-immunitaet-der-deutschen-feststellen-a-c8c64a33-5c0f-4630-bd73-48c17c1bad23
Center for Disease Control (CDC)
CDC Numbers (ignore all the distorted samples that media and political power grabbing leaders are misleading you with):
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
World Health Organization (WHO)
WHO numbers:
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS case-fatality = 10%
The 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5%
COVID-19: 1.4% outside China, 3.4% with China numbers. (Even these numbers are heavily skewed because they are mostly just high-risk populations initially, as it spreads to general population the number is dropping rapidly).
Regarding COVID-19 Medical journal The Lancet warns any estimates should be “treated with great caution because not all patients have concluded their illness (ie, recovered or died) and the true number of infections and full disease spectrum are unknown”.
How far a virus will spread comes down to what’s known as the reproduction number, or R0. It relates to how many people each infected person will pass the illness on to.
There have been various estimates for the new COVID-19 so far from different sources, but the WHO put a preliminary estimate as between 1.4 and 2.5 (these are early estimates from initially limited mostly-high-risk population, this number keeps dropping significantly as it spreads to the wider general population).
The pandemic (2009 H1N1 60+ million infected, death rate for young = 0.4% to 1.9% up age 49, and up to 3.9% death rate for ages 50+) 2009 influenza virus, which was also known as swine flu, had a R0 of between 1.2 to 1.6, according to the WHO, which made controlling its spread easier than viruses with higher transmissibility.
(NCBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3071719/)
Measles has a much higher R0 at 12 to 18 people. WHO.
All Diseases overviews - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/en/
MERS-COV - https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/yellow-fever/en/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/crises/ssd/en/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/zika-virus-tmp/en/
https://www.who.int/influenza/resources/charts/en/
https://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/swineflu/clinical_management_h1n1.pdf
https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/guidance/surveillance/WHO_case_definition_swine_flu_2009_04_29.pdf
H5N1
https://www.who.int/influenza/resources/research/2010_04_29_global_influenza_research_agenda_version_01_en.pdf
https://www.who.int/tb/data/en/
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYWU4YjUyN2YtMDBkOC00MGI1LTlhN2UtZGE5NThjY2E1ZThhIiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9
Practical (Edutainment) Guidance from Mythbusters
Mythbusters some useful lessons for those who were previously oblivious.
Catching contamination from inconsiderate person, notice how the real-life experienced "germaphobe" remains without contamination compared to everyone else: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1j8bh8_O_Q
Example of different techniques to attempt to reduce sneeze contamination spread. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vw0hIs2LEg
Remember, this too will pass, help others to remember it as well.
Be safe, well, patient, kind, & loving.
* I don't know if others have done this, but I'm trying to coin a term for this level of global panic, something like: Panepipanicdemic (Pan-epi-panic-demic) / Epipanic-demic / Epipanidemic? Also: Epipanic, Panpanic, Panpanidemic, Epipanpanidemic, Panepipanicdemic.
- Pun / double meaning for Pan: pandemos ""all, every, whole, all-inclusive,""
- Epi = among,upon
- Pun / double meaning for Pan: Panic = panikon (pertaining to Pan: "the god of woods and fields, who was the source of mysterious sounds that caused contagious, groundless fear in herds and crowds, or in people in lonely spots.")
- demic from demos = people,district
P.S. Another glaring proof from all of this insanity is total proof that the model of urban density and public transit is a fatal model.
Not only does suburban and rural living equal improved quality of life, including the often derided "car culture", diffused rather than concentrated housing and individual car transportation in the case of diseases no only increases overall quality of life which indirectly saves millions of lives each year (stress related diseases), it directly saves millions of lives from contagion which thrives in high density settings that rely on public transportation.
UPDATE 20211010 re: VACCINES
During normal non-"emergency" process, tightly controlled longitudinal
studies, typically spanning 5 to 10 years before approval, all of this
information would be determined before ever considering release to the
general public.
https://www.consumerlab.com/answers/comparison-of-covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines/?anchor=infections-in-vaccinated-moderna-vs-pfizer
"the long-term safety of any of the COVID-19 vaccines is still not
proven...
" the FDA and CDC continue to monitor the safety of COVID vaccines, in
part, through a national Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)
used to detect potential vaccine-related safety concerns
" ..."According to the CDC, "VAERS cannot determine if a vaccine caused
an adverse event but can determine if further investigation is needed."
"Cases of heart inflammation (myocarditis) after the mRNA COVID-19
vaccine have been reported mainly in male teens and young adults,
typically within 4 days of getting the second shot (Shimabukuro, ACIP
Meeting 6/23/21; Snapiri, Pediatr Infect Dis 2021; Rosner, Circulation
2021; Larson, Circulation 2021)."
"The FDA has added a warning statement to the Moderna and Pfizer
COVID-19 vaccines, noting that reports of adverse events following use
of these vaccines suggest increased risk of myocarditis and
pericarditis (inflammation of the tissue surrounding the heart),
particularly after the second dose, with symptom onset typically
occurring within a few days (FDA Fact Sheet for Administering Moderna
COVID-19 Vaccine; FDA Fact Sheet for Administering Pfizer COVID-19
Vaccine). The Ontario government has recommended that people ages 18 to
24 — particularly males — consider getting the Pfizer vaccine instead
of the Moderna vaccine, as the risk of myocarditis appears to be
slightly higher with Moderna. For instance, among males ages 18 to 24,
approximately one case of myocarditis was reported per 5,000 second
doses of the Moderna vaccine compared to one case per 28,000 second
doses of the Pfizer vaccine (Public Health Ontario, 8/25/21).
Similarly, in early October 2021, Sweden and Finland paused giving the
Moderna vaccine to people 30 and younger, and Denmark did the same for
those younger than 18. These restrictions were implemented based on
results from an unpublished Nordic study that apparently showed the
risk of myocarditis to be slightly higher with the Moderna vaccine than
the Pfizer vaccine among men younger than 30. Affected individuals in
these countries are being advised to get the Pfizer vaccine.
The long-term effects of this side effect are unclear,"
" in early October 2021, Sweden and Finland paused giving the Moderna
vaccine to people 30 and younger, and Denmark did the same for those
younger than 18. These restrictions were implemented based on results
from an unpublished Nordic study that apparently showed the risk of
myocarditis to be slightly higher with the Moderna vaccine than the
Pfizer vaccine among men younger than 30. Affected individuals in these
countries are being advised to get the Pfizer vaccine."
"cases of capillary leak syndrome (CLS) — a condition marked by a rapid
fall in blood pressure due to fluid leakage from small blood vessels —
have also been reported, with some cases associated with a history of
CLS. People with a history of CLS are advised not to get the
AstraZeneca vaccine. Guillain-Barré syndrome has also been reported
following the AstraZeneca vaccine,"
"Cases of shoulder injury related to vaccine administration (SIRVA)
" ... " most experts attribute this type of shoulder injury to
inflammation caused by improper injection technique rather than the
vaccine itself, with injection going too high in the shoulder and into
the shoulder joint capsule rather than the deltoid muscle, which is
lower."
Most common side effects: "mainly mild to moderate in severity and
included fatigue, headache, chills, muscle pain, joint pain, fever,
diarrhea, and vomiting." ..."Side effects tended to be more common in
females than males, and in younger than older people" ..." In rare
cases, severe allergic reactions have occurred." "many of the adverse
events associated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, including
anaphylaxis, appear to be more common in women than men" "possibly due
to genetic and hormonal differences (such as estrogen's promotion of
antibody production) that can lead to stronger immune responses in
women "
"Women also appear to be more likely to experience "long COVID" —
persistent symptoms months after infection — compared to men.)"
"Facial swelling in several people with a history of dermal (skin)
fillers has been reported 1-2 days after the second dose of the mRNA
COVID-19 vaccine.
"
"Starting as early as a few days up to more than a week after the first
dose of mRNA vaccine (average time to onset: 8 days), some people have
experienced red, itchy, swollen or painful rash, called "COVID arm,"
also known as "delayed cutaneous hypersensitivity," which develops at
the vaccine injection site. Other skin symptoms such as raised, tender
bumps on the palm and fingers or hives with swelling on the elbows may
also occur."
"A study of nearly 50,000 healthcare workers found that skin reactions
(such as itchiness, hives, or swelling) affected only about 4% of
people who received the two-dose mRNA vaccines. "
"were much more common among women than men (85% vs 15%) (Robinson,
JAMA Dermatol 2021).
"
"Swelling of the lymph nodes is a possible side effect of the mRNA
COVID-19 vaccines..." ..."may interfere with imaging studies".
"Nearly 300 cases of shingles after COVID vaccination have been
reported in the U.S. as of 4/23/21 (VAERS Data, 4/23/21)." but
dismissed as "triggered, in part, by stressful life events or
depression — both of which are common during the pandemic."
ages 12 to 17: "the most common serious adverse events were chest pain,
increased troponin levels (suggesting injury to heart muscle),
myocarditis, and increased c-reactive protein (indicating inflammation)
(Hause, MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021). All of these events are
consistent with a diagnosis of myocarditis."
"if myocarditis is experienced after the first dose, experts recommend
deferring the second dose until more information is known (Wallace,
ACIP Meeting 6/23/21)."
" the long-term risks of vaccine-related myocarditis in adolescents are
still unclear (Dionne, JAMA Cardiology 2021)."
J&J vaccine: "thromboembolic (disseminated clots that block blood
vessels) events (i.e., deep vein thrombosis (6 vs. 2), pulmonary
embolism (4 vs. 1), and transverse sinus thrombosis (1 vs. 0)),
seizures (4 vs. 1), and ringing in the ears (tinnitus) (6 vs. 0) (FDA
Fact Sheet for Administering Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine, 2021)."
"the cause of TTS associated with the J&J vaccine are still unknown,"
"As noted by the FDA and CDC, "Treatment of this specific type of blood
clot is different from the treatment that might typically be
administered. Usually, an anticoagulant drug called heparin is used to
treat blood clots. In this setting, administration of heparin may be
dangerous, and alternative treatments need to be given." The agencies
want health care providers to be aware of the potential for these
adverse events and plan for proper recognition and management due to
the unique treatment required with this type of blood clot."
Risk factors to consider:
" shingles, cancer, heart conditions or pulmonary disease, genetic
heart conditions, anemia, use of blood thinners or statins, history of
immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), chronic fatigue syndrome, autoimmune
conditions (such as rheumatoid arthritis or lupus erythematosus) or
taking immunosuppressants (including corticosteroids such as
prednisone), chronic inflammatory diseases (e.g., inflammatory bowel
disease such as Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis), splenectomy or
functional asplenia, liver disease or transplant, kidney disease
(including those on dialysis) or transplant, psoriasis, eczema,
multiple sclerosis (MS), mast cell activation syndrome (MCAS), a
compromised immune system (including use of immunosuppressants such as
corticosteroids), Parkinson's disease, peripheral neuropathy, migraine,
allergies or a history of allergic reactions, a history of
Guillain-Barré syndrome or Bell's palsy, dermal (skin) fillers
(including those placed recently or years ago), osteoporosis, very
frail elderly, before or after surgery, pregnancy, or breast-feeding"
Increasing differentiation between effecicacy or side effects of
different vaccine options:
"risk of breakthrough infections was about 40% to 50% higher among
those who received Pfizer compared to Moderna (Wang, World Psychiatry
2021)."
though continuing to insist they are rare, the percentage keeps rising
over time for "cases of very serious blood clotting." (J&J)
"vaccine effectiveness at 14 to 120 days after vaccination was compared
with that at more than 120 days after vaccination, the Moderna vaccine
continued to show similar effectiveness, while effectiveness of the
Pfizer vaccine significantly declined (77% at >120 days versus 91% at
14 to 120 days) "
"Although up to 15 million doses of the J&J vaccine were contaminated
at manufacturing plant in Baltimore, these were not distributed
according to a White House statement."
"Some data with the Pfizer vaccine showed that it had no efficacy in
the general population until day 14, with the incidence of new
infections actually increasing until day 8 after first-dose vaccination"
"weekly vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 infection declined from about
92% at the beginning of May to about 80% at the end of July (Rosenberg,
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021)."
"Research shows that the vaccines protect against severe infection and
hospitalization through six months, but there is evidence that efficacy
against infection may begin to decline at around six months after the
second dose "
"Similar events have been reported with the AstraZeneca vaccine (not
authorized for use in the U.S.), which, like the J&J vaccine, is an
adenovirus-based vaccine and not an mRNA vaccine. The cause was
attributed to an autoimmune response to the vaccine. It was found that
use of high-dose intravenous immune globulin may be important in
treatment to raise the platelet count, especially when a patient
presents with severe thrombocytopenia and thrombosis, such as cerebral
venous thrombosis (Greinacher, NEJM 2021)."
"People previously infected with COVID seem to develop persistent
cellular immunity, as shown in one study in New York among people with
a history of COVID (mainly mild) who showed highly functional memory T
cell responses at 6 months after infection (Breton, bioRxiv 2021 —
preprint)."
"The CDC's recommendations do not explicitly address":
* Shingles
* Heart conditions and chronic pulmonary disease: People with heart
conditions or chronic pulmonary disease — including heart failure,
stroke, coronary artery disease, cardiomyopathies, and pulmonary
hypertension
* Genetic heart conditions
* Anemia
* Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP)
* Liver disease: People with chronic liver disease, hepatitis B, or
hepatitis C
* autoimmune kidney diseases on chronic immunosuppression
* Cancer
*
This goes on for pages and pages.
https://www.consumerlab.com/answers/comparison-of-covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines/?anchor=infections-in-vaccinated-moderna-vs-pfizer
And we're only a short time into this. Just think how extensive this
list will be after the proper 5 to 10+ years such agents typically go
through before public implementation. Then an aggregate meta-analysis
can finally asses the overall risk-to-benefit numbers as a whole,
rather than the current piecemeal assessments that keep downplaying the
overall risk factors that should always be considered.
The Adventure Continues!